Assuming they've all got their passports, England's cricketers will fly out to Australia tomorrow. But come February, when they move on to India for the World Cup, will they still be the proud owners of the Ashes urn?
When England last won a series on Australian soil, in 1986-87, they had a skipper from Middlesex, boasted a dashing middle order batsman and Broad was a key member of the squad. OK, while Andrew Strauss may be more athletic in the field than Mike Gatting, Kevin Pietersen perhaps doesn't have the natural grace of David Gower and, despite THAT partnership in the summer, Stuart's batting hasn't quite reached the standard of dad Chris. But if the omens mean nothing, recent form has at least put England in a strong position.
The summer victories over Pakistan had some of the sheen taken off them after the spot-betting allegations emerged, but the test series was won with some polished performances, particularly from swing king James Anderson and spin doctor Graeme Swann (45 wickets between them). And last year's Ashes series win marks England out as arguably the best team in the world in cool, overcast, swinging conditions.
But to win Down Under will take something a bit extra. Australia may not be the force they once were, and for the first time in living memory England begin an Ashes series as the highest-ranked team after Ricky Ponting's men lost in India. However, under the weight of their own expectation and in the glare of an unforgiving Aussie crowd, England will have to prove they have added mental strength to the close-knit team spirit engendered under Strauss and coach Andy Flower.
The batting line-up, so often exposed in the heat of battle in Oz, will need to provide a platform. Strauss will be targeted by the Aussies, as captains always are, and he and opening partner Alastair Cook will need to remain granite-like at the crease. Cook only averaged 23 against Pakistan, as did Kevin Pietersen, who will remain a prize wicket for the Aussie bowlers. Jonathan Trott, Paul Collingwood, Matt Prior and whoever gets the nod between Eoin Morgan and Ian Bell will need to anchor the innings if the top order flops but these days England bat well down the order, with Broad and Swann able to hit out.
The big concern has to be England's ability to take 20 Aussie wickets in their backyard. The ball won't swing the way Anderson will want it to, and Swann has to replicate his form of the summer even on the pitches that won't be as conducive to spin. The two that could make an impact are Steve Finn and Chris Tremlett. Finn has 32 test wickets to his name but will be somewhat of an unknown quantity to the Aussies, while Tremlett, if selected, has the frame to generate pace and bounce - the new Steve Harmison, if you will.
He was selected ahead of Ajmal Shahzad, one of two big squad decisions the selectors got right in my view. Taking Monty Panesar was the other - the Sikh of Tweak has enjoyed a renaissance at Sussex and he is an excellent back-up option to Swann, and may well play alongside him in the spin-friendly final Test in Sydney.
The morning session in Brisbane will set the tone - let's hope it brings more luck than Harmison's wayward first ball four years ago...
(My tip - a 2-2 series draw and the urn to stay with England. You heard it here first.)
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